DALLAS, TX - On a somewhat recent episode of the King of the Court podcast, Jimmy Miller and Tyler Loong discussed an interesting question: is it better to win Game 1 or Game 2 in a three-game match?

The co-hosts had differing opinions on the matter, with Miller preferring to win Game 2 and Loong being partial to winning the first.

“I prefer to win Game 2 because I feel like I have the momentum,” Miller revealed. “Ideally, we’ve figured something out from Game 1 to Game 2, and now we have the momentum.”

I found my thinking to be more in line with Miller’s. And of course, who doesn’t love a good comeback?

Loong, on the other hand, felt better about taking the first game.

“I would actually prefer to win Game 1,” he shared. “Winning Game 1 and just having that first game under your belt going into the second is so much better than knowing that you have to win Game 2."

Both points are valid, but is there a truly correct answer to this question?

I did the research to find out.

Across the first 15 PPA Tour events in 2024, 945 pro main draw matches have gone to a third game.

Game 2 victors have gone on to win 512 of those matches, while Game 1 victors have triumphed in 433.

That’s a win rate of 54.17% for players or teams that win the second game as opposed to the first.

Thus, there does seem to be a statistical advantage to winning Game 2 in best-of-three contests.

So, keep this in mind the next time you don’t start too well in a match.

Or you can avoid the trouble altogether and just win the first two games.

But…where’s the fun in that?